1999
Talkin' 'Bout da Movies
Now that all is said and done, click here to read my Oscar Wrap-up!
Once again, with surprisingly little thought or consideration, I have attempted to predict the winners of the 71st Annual Academy Awards, to be broadcast Sunday, March 21, 1999 at 5 pm Pacific (8 pm Eastern) on ABC. Feel free to make your own predictions, and try to beat my accuracy record, which last year was... uh... well, we won’t go into that, I think.
This year, as always, I make predictions in all the major categories plus a bonus category, which this year is Best Foreign Language Film for reasons that will become clear as we proceed. Nobody cares about things like Best Sound Effects Editing and Best Makeup, so I won’t bother with those. I won’t be making any predictions in the documentary categories this year, but if you’re handicapping at home, please note that if THE LAST DAYS wins Best Documentary Feature this year it will be the fourth Holocaust documentary in three years to win one of the two documentary awards. (That gives me an idea for a movie...)
Anyway. Enough of this preliminary nonsense, ’cause it’s on to...
In Travesties, the section where I identify the best films and performances that were not nominated for major awards, we find my favorite film of 1998, HAPPINESS (“the feel-good movie of the year!”) You may recall that HAPPINESS is the movie that was roundly lambasted by the William Bennett crowd for its less-than-hysterically-negative portrayal of a suburban pedophile. As usual when people kick up a fuss of this nature, they miss the point entirely; HAPPINESS is an extremely dark comedy about what people think they need to be happy and how wrong they are and, essentially, how people are rotten and life stinks. In a year when we mourn the passing of the legendary Stanley Kubrick, I can’t think of a more appropriate message.
NOT ONLY THAT, but HAPPINESS had not one but TWO terribly sexy women from “The Practice” (Lara Flynn Boyle, Camryn Manheim), my favorite show, which I started watching last year and soon became addicted to. Which of course is exactly what I need in my life: more TV.
(I’m making plans to hold a Todd Solondz/Neil LaBute Film Festival, screening WELCOME TO THE DOLLHOUSE, IN THE COMPANY OF MEN, HAPPINESS, and YOUR FRIENDS AND NEIGHBORS back to back. I plan to hide all the sharp objects.)
As long as we’re on the subject of pedophilia (and how often do I get to say that?), I think Adrian Lyne’s faithful retelling of LOLITA was unfairly maligned and its Oscars exclusion qualifies as a travesty. Other travesties include RUSHMORE, a very Harold-and-Maude-esque movie whose lack of success at the box office sets it up very nicely to become a cult classic in a few years, and the unconventional, sardonic THE OPPOSITE OF SEX.
Acting travesties include Bill Murray’s brilliantly low-key Herman Blume in RUSHMORE (really, what could the academy have been thinking when they shut this movie out?); Lisa Kudrow as Lucia, the bitterest human being in the world, in THE OPPOSITE OF SEX; Christina “Wednesday No More” Ricci’s delightfully evil Dedee Truitt in the same movie; and Camryn Manheim as the lonely woman with a secret in HAPPINESS. Instead, we get Tom Hanks for what feels like the fiftieth time. Someone change the record, please.
As long as we’re talking about travesties: The Academy is giving a special Oscar to House Un-American Activities Committee stool pigeon Elia Kazan. Can you believe this? ELIA KAZAN NAMED NAMES. I’d like to see that lizard restore some of the careers he ruined before ever being allowed within 500 miles of an honorary Oscar, even if he did make ON THE WATERFRONT.
Anti-travesties: In the Thank God They Didn’t category we find the unwatchable VELVET GOLDMINE, my choice for worst film of the year (and I saw LOST IN SPACE!), and Gus Van Sant’s fetishistic remake of PSYCHO. (I’m currently seeking financing for my proposed shot-by-shot remake of MANOS, THE HANDS OF FATE starring Jack Nicholson in the Hal Warren role, with Annette Bening as his wife, Christopher Walken as the Master, and Robert De Niro as Torgo. If you know anyone who’s well-connected in the film industry, have them give me a buzz.)
The Irving Thalberg Memorial Award this year goes to Norman Jewison, who’s currently producing Jim Carrey’s remake of Don Knotts’ THE INCREDIBLE MR. LIMPET. So make of that what you will.
And lastly, insofar as I was, in fact, the only person in America who did not see THERE’S SOMETHING ABOUT MARY, I hereby truthfully and happily declare myself unqualified to comment on its merits, so go find someone who cares.
Nominees:
ELIZABETH
SAVING
PRIVATE RYAN
SHAKESPEARE
IN LOVE
THE
THIN RED LINE
LIFE
IS BEAUTIFUL (LA VITA È BELLA)
Who Should Win: SHAKESPEARE IN LOVE
Last year, you’ll recall, I had seen all five of the nominated movies before the nominations came out. This year I didn’t do as good a job, and didn’t get around to seeing ELIZABETH or LIFE IS BEAUTIFUL before the nominations were announced. Having caught up in the meantime, however, I feel as qualified to comment on them as anyone. As always, then, let us address the nominated pictures in decreasing order of irrationality:
THE THIN RED LINE. I suppose it was inevitable that the suits would nominate Terrence Malick’s self-indulgent ode to the worst in 70’s filmmaking. Oh man, did I ever want to like this movie. You can never have too many World War II movies, as I see it, and to think that one of the legitimate giants of 70’s cinema would come out of retirement just for this picture and half of the biggest stars in Hollywood would fall all over themselves for the right to appear in cameos...why, that practically guarantees a picture for the ages, wouldn’t you agree? What we got instead was a mess. THE THIN RED LINE is a virtually plotless exercise in self-gratification in which all the hardcore Army grunts talk like eighteenth-century French philosophers (“Why does nature contend with itself?”), and half the time you can’t even hear them because Mallick’s mixed the score too loud. I haven’t read James Jones’ novel, but I can’t imagine it being anywhere near as confusing and pointless as the movie. I tend not to want to ascribe impure motives to feelm creeteeks, but I have to wonder how many of the writers and commentators who praise this movie so effusively did so only to keep up appearances.
ELIZABETH. Another movie I wanted to like more than I did. Indian director Shekhar Kapur’s first English-language film is very nearly spot-on in many ways, and Cate Blanchett’s turn as Elizabeth I is nothing short of astonishing (see below), but as befits a movie that concerns itself with the Byzantine plottings of the House of Tudor, the plot was a bit too murky and confusing at times to hold my interest.
(Trivia: Whereas last year we had for the first time two people nominated for playing the same role in the same movie (Kate Winslet and Gloria Stuart in TITANIC), this year for the first time we have two people (Judi Dench and Cate Blanchett) nominated for playing the same role (Queen Elizabeth I) in different pictures (ELIZABETH, SHAKESPEARE IN LOVE). Dench, of course, was nominated last year for playing a different British monarch (Queen Victoria in MRS. BROWN), making her the first person to be nominated for playing two different famous queens of England two years in a row. Cate Blanchett has never played any other British monarchs on screen, but in 1997’s OSCAR AND LUCINDA she played the love interest of Ralph Fiennes, brother to Joseph Fiennes, her love interest in ELIZABETH—who also played William Shakespeare in SHAKESPEARE IN LOVE, leading one to wonder whether Dench’s Queen Elizabeth liked Shakespeare because he reminded her of someone from long ago. Confused yet? If not, why not?)
SAVING PRIVATE RYAN. What? SAVING PRIVATE RYAN is third? Well, I broke down my preferences and this is where it ended up. I suppose any “serious” Spielberg picture is going to suffer in the inevitable comparison to SCHINDLER’S LIST—and rightly so—and objectively there was no way Spielberg was going to keep the rest of the movie at the same level as the already-legendary first half hour, depicting the invasion of Omaha Beach. I’m not saying I didn’t like the movie, because I did, a lot. I kind of wish they hadn’t cast the increasingly irritating Matt Damon as the title character, and I am becoming so very, very tired of Tom Hanks’ saintly characters, but on the whole I thought SAVING PRIVATE RYAN was very good. Just not as good as some of the other movies I saw last year.
LIFE IS BEAUTIFUL. I certainly wouldn’t have expected a subtitled comedy set in a Nazi concentration camp to be nominated in four of the eight major categories, but there you go. LIFE IS BEAUTIFUL becomes the first movie since the French film Z in 1970 to be nominated for Best Picture and Best Foreign Language film, and the second foreign language film in four years to be nominated for Best Picture (the last was also from Italy—Massimo Troisi’s THE POSTMAN (IL POSTINO), not to be confused with THE POSTMAN, Kevin Costner’s bomb from 1997.) Where was I? LIFE IS BEAUTIFUL, right. Anyway, LIFE IS BEAUTIFUL is really not in extremely poor taste as you might expect, and if you get a chance to see it you really should.
Connoisseurs of the strange may have noticed certain superficial similarities between LIFE IS BEAUTIFUL and the movie said to be the worst film of all time, Jerry Lewis’ 1972 vanity project THE DAY THE CLOWN CRIED. In this movie, Jerry plays Helmut Doork, a circus clown interned in a Nazi concentration camp who entertains Jewish children on their way to the gas chamber. THE DAY THE CLOWN CRIED was never released, rendering it something of a Holy Grail to bad movie aficionados such as myself. I hope very much to see it some day.
SHAKESPEARE IN LOVE. The part of me that gives a rat’s rear end what other people think of me is worried that my reputation as a feelm snob will suffer now that I’ve picked two excessively middlebrow movies as my favorites two years in a row. In my own defense, I wish to point out that both this year and the last one my actual favorite movies—both very small, controversial, and decidedly non-mainstream—were not even nominated, forcing me to pick from the pictures that remained. As with my choice of TITANIC last year, I stick by my pick and will defend it against all comers. (That’s the part of me that DOESN’T give a rat’s rear end what other people think.)
Anyway, SHAKESPEARE IN LOVE is one of the brightest movies that’ve come along in a while. This film has warmth, wit, and—courtesy of Gwyneth Paltrow—more celebrity nipplage than a week’s worth of late-night movies on Skinemax. Though I suppose one would have to be something of a student of the Bard to appreciate all the little asides and in-jokes, I’m in favor of any movie that can get people to appreciate Shakespeare without insulting his work; the reception this movie has gotten says something very positive about us, the moviegoing public. I recommend it to any and all.
Who Will Win: SAVING PRIVATE RYAN
SHAKESPEARE IN LOVE has more total nominations, but I think it’s a little too light and comedic to win. Ladbrokes, the London oddsmaker, gives SAVING PRIVATE RYAN astonishing 1 to 5 odds to win; SHAKESPEARE IN LOVE, at 4 to 1, comes in a very distant second. I had already made my pick before I looked up the odds. This one’s in the bag.
Nominees:
Nick Nolte,
AFFLICTION
Edward Norton,
AMERICAN
HISTORY X
Ian McKellen,
GODS
AND MONSTERS
Tom Hanks,
SAVING
PRIVATE RYAN
Roberto Benigni,
LIFE IS BEAUTIFUL
Who Should Win: Edward Norton, AMERICAN HISTORY X
Edward Norton will win an Oscar someday, but I fear this will not be his year. His performance as Derek Vinyard, a disillusioned skinhead who decides to leave the life after a stint in prison, is the best thing about this very earnest, Stanley Kramerish movie. Unfortunately, I don’t think enough people saw it, and I haven’t heard a whole lot of buzz about Norton this year.
I’ve seen all the nominated performance and they were all quite good. I’d say Nick Nolte is about half a nose behind Edward Norton.
Who Will Win: Tom Hanks, SAVING PRIVATE RYAN
Another Oscar for Saint Tom. Yawn.
Nominees:
Fernanda
Montenegro,
CENTRAL
STATION (CENTRAL DO BRASIL)
Cate Blanchett,
ELIZABETH
Emily Watson,
HILARY
AND JACKIE
Meryl Streep,
ONE TRUE
THING
Gwyneth Paltrow,
SHAKESPEARE
IN LOVE
Who Should Win: Cate Blanchett, ELIZABETH
This one’s easy: Cate Blanchett’s incredible, compelling, can’t-look-away-when-she’s-on-screen portrayal of Queen Elizabeth I blows everyone else away. Blanchett’s very fair skin takes on an eerily androidal cast that grows more pronounced as Princess Elizabeth is crowned Queen and is plunged into the GODFATHER-esque world of the House of Tudor, forced by circumstance to grow ruthless and cold to survive. Wow. I’ll be upset if she doesn’t win.
Who Will Win: Cate Blanchett, ELIZABETH
And I think she may very well win, indeed. Ladbrokes gives Gwyneth Paltrow the edge, and Paltrow did a very fine job, but I’m still going to pick Cate Blanchett to win.
Nominees:
James Coburn,
AFFLICTION
Robert Duvall,
A CIVIL
ACTION
Billy Bob
Thornton,
A SIMPLE
PLAN
Geoffrey Rush,
SHAKESPEARE
IN LOVE
Ed Harris,
THE TRUMAN
SHOW
Who Should Win: Billy Bob Thornton, A SIMPLE PLAN
I can’t explain this except to say go see A SIMPLE PLAN. Billy Bob Thornton brings certain subtleties to his role that you don’t really appreciate until a good bit into the picture. Very understated. I liked it.
Who Will Win: James Coburn, AFFLICTION
This may end up being one of those Lifetime Achievement awards they give to old troupers who’ve paid their dues but never won anything. That would be fine, I guess. Coburn’s abusive-alcoholic-jerk was a bit standard, but well done.
Nominees:
Lynn Redgrave,
GODS
AND MONSTERS
Rachel Griffiths,
HILARY
AND JACKIE
Brenda Blethyn,
LITTLE VOICE
Kathy Bates,
PRIMARY COLORS
Judi Dench,
SHAKESPEARE
IN LOVE
Who Should Win: Kathy Bates, PRIMARY COLORS
Kathy Bates was the best part of a movie that wasn’t that good to begin with; way back in February of last year I was hoping she’d get nominated. I also liked the nearly unrecognizable Lynn Redgrave in GODS AND MONSTERS, but didn’t think the part was worth an Oscar.
Who Will Win: Brenda Blethyn, LITTLE VOICE
I’ve been trying to see LITTLE VOICE for several months but have been unable to for reasons we need not go into here, so this is as much a guess as anything. I resort here to my Oscar predictions motto: when all else fails, go with the limey. I might have picked Judi Dench for the same reason, except that her role in SHAKESPEARE IN LOVE was little more than an extended cameo. Still, I picked Dench to win Lead Actress last year and was burned, so wouldn’t it just be exactly my luck if she were to win the year I passed her by.
Nominees:
Steven Spielberg,
SAVING
PRIVATE RYAN
John Madden,
SHAKESPEARE
IN LOVE
Terrence Malick,
THE
THIN RED LINE
Peter Weir,
THE TRUMAN
SHOW
Roberto Benigni,
LIFE IS BEAUTIFUL
Who Should Win: Steven Spielberg, SAVING PRIVATE RYAN
Part of me thinks that Spielberg’s accomplishment with SCHINDLER’S LIST, one of the most nearly perfect films ever made, will be diluted if he wins a second Best Director Oscar for SAVING PRIVATE RYAN, which is a distinctly inferior film. Still, of the five directors who were nominated, I think Spielberg did the best job of directing, though I also liked Benigni, Madden, and to a lesser extent, Weir.
Who Will Win: Terrence Malick, THE THIN RED LINE
I think this might be the category in which Malick is given his Lifetime Achievement award and escorted gently off stage. I figure Spielberg has about an equal chance.
Nominees:
Warren Beatty
(screenplay/story),
Jeremy Pikser
(screenplay),
BULWORTH
Robert Rodat,
SAVING
PRIVATE RYAN
Marc Norman,
Tom Stoppard,
SHAKESPEARE
IN LOVE
Andrew Niccol,
THE TRUMAN
SHOW
Vincenzo Cerami,
Roberto Benigni,
LIFE
IS BEAUTIFUL
Who Should Win: Marc Norman, Tom Stoppard, SHAKESPEARE IN LOVE
Not even close. Marc Norman and Tom Stoppard, I’m sure, would be the first to tell you they’re not in the same league as William Shakespeare. Yet they managed to expertly capture the feel of Shakespeare’s comedies, like THE TWO GENTLEMEN OF VERONA, AS YOU LIKE IT, and A COMEDY OF ERRORS (the gender confusion in the movie could have been taken from any number of Shakespeare comedies, of course, and I’m sure we all recognized the Shakespearean clowns like the script-pitching gondola captain).
Who Will Win: Marc Norman, Tom Stoppard, SHAKESPEARE IN LOVE
This should really be the easiest category to pick. In the Oscar pool at work everyone is all over the map except for Hanks and Spielberg for SAVING PRIVATE RYAN, and this category. Of the five films nominated for Original Screenplay, SHAKESPEARE IN LOVE owes the most to its writing. This should be a lock.
Nominees:
Bill Condon,
Curtis Hanson,
GODS
AND MONSTERS
Scott Frank,
OUT OF SIGHT
Elaine May,
PRIMARY COLORS
Scott B. Smith,
A SIMPLE PLAN
Terrence Malick,
THE
THIN RED LINE
Who Should Win: Scott B. Smith, A SIMPLE PLAN
This is another category in which I can’t identify a clear favorite. It comes down to A SIMPLE PLAN and GODS AND MONSTERS, ’cause I’m sure not going with PRIMARY COLORS or THE THIN RED LINE, and I haven’t seen OUT OF SIGHT. I felt slightly better about the writing in A SIMPLE PLAN, so that’s my choice.
Who Will Win: Scott Frank, OUT OF SIGHT
I figure this is where the academy will indulge their Elmore Leonard fetish and give the award to OUT OF SIGHT. Either that or Malick.
This year’s bonus category is:
Nominees:
THE GRANDFATHER
(EL ABUELO), Spain
THE
CHILDREN OF HEAVEN (BACHEHA-YE ASEMAN), Iran
CENTRAL
STATION (CENTRAL DO BRASIL), Brazil
TANGO, Argentina
LIFE
IS BEAUTIFUL (LA VITA È BELLA), Italy
Who Should Win: LIFE IS BEAUTIFUL, Italy
I felt kind of bad for LIFE IS BEAUTIFUL when I realized I hadn’t picked it in any of the other categories, so I decided to make Best Foreign Language Film this year’s bonus category. I have not seen any of the other movies besides CENTRAL STATION, which was also very good, but I’m going to pick LIFE IS BEAUTIFUL as my favorite. I’ve also heard good things about THE CHILDREN OF HEAVEN, and have heard nothing at all about THE GRANDFATHER. As for TANGO... the less said about dancing movies, the better. (Did you know Robert Duvall is the Argentinian Tango Ambassador to the United States? Really.)
Who Will Win: LIFE IS BEAUTIFUL, Italy
Sure, why not. LIFE IS BEAUTIFUL is way too controversial (and way too foreign) to win any of the major categories for which it has been nominated, but I can see the Academy liking it enough to vote for it in a nice safe category like Best Foreign Language Film, which nobody cares about anyway. At least this way they can say they didn’t shut it out.
So there, for what it’s worth, are my picks. As always, I’d love to hear from you if you agree or, better, strenuously disagree. If you have picks of your own, let me know. See if you can beat me. Winner gets bragging rights for the rest of the year, not that the loser will ever let the winner exercise them. Signing off.