Paul's Oscar Pix
Talkin' 'Bout da Movies
Accuracy Graph
Predictive Accuracy
Synergy
Quotient
Blind Chance
Predictive Accuracy: the percentage of my predictions
that were correct.
Synergy Quotient: the percentage of my personal choices
that corresponded with the actual winners.
2006: Second best year ever, marred by the surprise win of Crash over Brokeback Mountain. Little by little I'm getting better over time.
2005: My first Best Picture miss in four years, which causes my accuracy to come down quite a bit from the stratosphere. I shall try to do better next year.
2004: One hundred percent! One hundred percent! Worship me, pathetic mortals! Fear me! Feeeeeeeeeaar meeeeeeeeeeeee!
2003: Down a bit from last year; I was wrong about some of the categories I was sure of (Director, Best Actor) and right about one I wasn’t (Adapted Screenplay). My Synergy Quotient was back up to 44 percent, and on the whole I was quite happy about the choices on which the Academy and I agreed. Overall a pretty good year.
2002: For weeks the media said that was the most wide-open race in memory, and here I go and make my best predictions ever. Biggest surprises were Jim Broadbent for Supporting Actor and Halle Berry for Actress. My Synergy Quotient dipped back down to tie its lowest mark, once again indicating how far away the Academy and I are on what constitutes a good movie. (Actually, blind chance this year is more like, let’s see, 21.4 percent because there were only three nominees for Best Animated Feature. But I’m too lazy to change the dashed green line to reflect a lousy 1.4 percent difference. You’ll just have to imagine it.)
2001: The Academy’s choices measured much lower on the suck meter this year, so my Synergy Quotient shot back up to 1999 levels. My accuracy was a little lower than last year, although, insofar as the 2000 choices were so monotonously predictable, that might not be such a bad thing.